MSCI公布市场分类评审结果：延迟纳入中国A股
MSCI 公布 2016 年度市场分类评审结果
MSCI 延迟将中国 A 股纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数
2016 年 6 月 14 日于美国纽约 – 作为全球领先的指数供应商，MSCI Inc.（纽交所：MSCI）在其今日公布的 2016 年全球市场分类评审结果中提到，延迟将中国 A 股纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数。在过去几个月，中国当局为满足国际投资者需求，对中国 A 股市场的准入制度进行了一系列显著的改善。
这些制度改善意在扫除之前被视为 A 股纳入的几个主要障碍，其中包括：（1）有效解决实际权益拥有权问题；（2）加强上市公司停复牌监管，以回应这个近来被投资者视为最关键的问题；（3）改革 QFII 制度，旨在放宽额度分配和资本流动两项限制。
MSCI 的董事总经理和全球研究主管 Remy Briand 指出：“将中国 A 股纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数的议题已经取得了显著的进展。这些积极进展体现出中国当局努力提升 A 股市场准入标准至国际水平的坚定决心。我们期盼当局继续制度改革的政策动力，着手解决剩下的市场准入问题。”Briand 先生表示：“国际机构投资者希望在中国 A 股被纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数之前看到 A 股市场准入情况得到更进一步的切实改善。MSCI 将履行我们的标准惯例，密切关注近期所公布新政的执行进展并收集市场参与者的反馈。”
MSCI 与全球市场参与者就中国 A 股纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数这项议题进行了广泛深入的咨询。国际投资者对中国当局为进一步开放 A 股市场所采取的各项措施表示肯定，并且特别指出实际权益拥有权的问题已经得到圆满解决。另一方面，大多数投资者强调，QFII 额度分配和资本流动限制的相关制度进展以及交易所停牌新规的执行效果仍需要一段时间去观察。而且，QFII 每月资本赎回不超过上一年度净资产值 20%的额度限制尚存。包括共同基金在内的，有法定义务满足客户赎回的这一类型投资者仍视此项限制为投资 A 股的重要阻碍，认为这个问题必须得到圆满的解决方案。最后，中国交易所对涉及 A 股的金融产品进行预先审批的限制仍未得到有效解决。
有鉴于此，MSCI 将继续保留中国 A 股在 2017 年纳入新兴市场的审核名单上。假若中国 A 股市场准入状况在 2017 年 6 月之前出现显著的积极进展，MSCI 不排除在年度市场分类评审的例行周期之外提前公布纳入 A 股的可能性。MSCI今日同时公布将MSCI巴基斯坦指数于2017年5月半年度指数评审时纳入成为新兴市场。MSCI秘鲁指数将继续留在新兴市场。但是，MSCI强调一旦MSCI秘鲁指数的成份股数目低于新兴市场最少3只成份股数目的最低要求，秘鲁将被重新分类为前沿市场。在此一提，MSCI秘鲁指数目前仅有3只成份股，刚刚达到新兴市场最低成份股数目要求。MSCI公布将MSCI阿根廷指数列入其2017年度市场分类评审可能纳入成为新兴市场的审核名单上。MSCI 韩国指数将不会被列入2017年度市场分类评审可能纳入成为发达市场的审核名单上。主要是由于韩国金融服务委员会早前公布的新规需到2017年才生效， 加上韩元兑换限制导致的投资阻力以及韩国交易所就金融产品开发而设的数据使用限制仍未得到有效解决。
此外，MSCI 宣布，由于资本流动限制的问题，MSCI 尼日利亚指数将可能从 MSCI 前沿市场指数中剔除并归类为独立市场。MSCI 表示将于未来 3 个月向国际机构投资者咨询是否应于 2016 年 11 月半年度指数评审时实施此项建议。MSCI 欢迎沙特资本市场管理局与沙特阿拉伯证券交易所（Tadawul）近期公布的市场准入的改善措施，并会继续为国际机构投资者监测沙特阿拉伯股票市场对外开放政策的演变。已公布的措施包括上市证券交割周期变更、取消现金提前到帐要求、引进合适的付款交割／券款对付机制以及合格境外金融机构准入规则。以上措施将于 2017 年年中实施。措施生效后将使沙特阿拉伯股票市场准入条件提升至更接近新兴市场的水平。
最后，MSCI 就其覆盖的82个国家发布了2016 年度全球市场准入的评审结果。
MSCI在每年6月都会宣布和投资业界咨询讨论后关于当年市场分类评审的结果，并公布在下一个评审周期可能会被重新归类的国家名单。
中国 A 股
MSCI持续地关注到中国股票市场对外开放的实质性进展，尤其是将近期公布的上市公司停复牌增强监管的新规、对实际权益拥有权问题的澄清、以及旨在解决额度分配和资本流动限制两大问题的QFII制度改革皆视为最终将中国A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的重要积极举措。
MSCI 此前就 2016 年度市场分类评审提出了中国 A 股纳入 MSCI 新兴市场指数的四项问题:
一. 实际权益拥有权问题大部分国际机构投资者对中国证监会于2016年5月就实际权益拥有权问题所作出的澄清表示满意。因此，MSCI认为此项议题已得到圆满解决。
二. QFII 制度改革对市场准入与资本流动的影响及成效国际机构投资者需要更多的时间与相关监管机构合作，在囊括提升资本流动性制度改良的QFII新政实施之后获取相关操作经验。例如，一些国际投资者反应他们仍在等待于数月前申请的QFII额度分配。一些投资者指出，尽管按日资本赎回的新规在今年二月初已经生效，他们尚未能受益于此项政策。在QFII新规下积级正面的操作经验，包括QFII额度的申请及按日资本赎回制度的无缝连贯执行，是国际投资者支持中国A股纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的关键考量。另外，相当多的市场参与者强调，近期旨在提升资本流动性的QFII政策改良仍未有效解决月度资本赎回限额给投资运营层面带来的挑战。在现行规定下，QFII投资者的每月资本赎回额度不能超过其上一年度净资产值的20%。此项限制对投资者需要兑付客户资金赎回时带来潜在的流动性障碍。所以，市场参与者认为当局应该考虑完全解除每月资本赎回额度限制或者大幅度增加赎回限额并同时缩短相应赎回周期。要不然，整个QFII投资渠道的有效性将会显著降低。
三. 旨在防范广泛性自愿停牌的交易所新规的执行情况股票停牌是MSCI咨询期间的一个焦点话题。国际投资者对中国内地上市公司广泛性自愿停牌所带来的流动性风险反应强烈。MSCI欢迎上海和深圳交易所近期公布的停复牌增强监管相关措施，但需指出此类市场行为不仅在新兴市场，甚至在MSCI所覆盖的所有市场中都是独一无二的。考虑到停牌新规刚刚实施，投资者需要一段时间观察政策实施的实际成效并且确认在上海和深圳交易所停牌的股票数量能在新规执行之后有显著的减少。四. 內地交易所针对金融产品的预先审批限制上海和深圳交易所对金融机构在全球任何交易所推出的包括中国A股的金融产品设立了预先审批的限制。此项限制涵盖了新推出的和现有的金融产品，带来的不确定性使国际投资者感到顾虑。这个预审限制的涵盖范围之广也是在新兴市场中是独一无二的。倘若中国A股被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数但中国交易所不批准MSCI授权MSCI新兴市场指数予现有MSCI新兴市场指数挂钩产品，该类产品将会受到交易中断的潜在威胁。因此，绝大多数投资者指出，在A股进入他们的投资标的范畴之前，中国交易所对相关制度的解除并与国际标准接轨至关紧要。基于对中国当前开放市场所取得的显着进展以及持续推进改革所做出努力的认可，MSCI表示中国A股将会保留在2017年纳入新兴市场的审核名单上。其定论以待国际投资者对QFII制度改革和停牌新规实际成效的相关经验反馈，以及预先审批限制问题的有效解决。假若以上提及方面在2017年6月之前出现显著的积极进展，MSCI不排除在年度市场分类评审的例行周期之外提前公布纳入A股的可能性。
阿根廷
MSCI将把MSCI阿根廷指数列入其2017年度市场分类评审可能纳入成为新兴市场的审核名单上。在 2015 年 12 月，阿根廷中央银行取消外汇管制的限制并且显着放宽实施了若干年的资本管制措施。这些措施导致: （1）浮动货币，（2）取消股票市场的现金储备与资本赎回限额，（3）大幅减少投资资本锁定期。因此阿根廷股票市场已满足MSCI市场分类框架下新兴市场的大部分衡量标准。
尼日利亚
MSCI 宣布向投资业界咨询是否将MSCI尼日利亚指数分类为独立市场。尼日利亚中央银行于 2015 年初将当地货币与美元挂钩，导致外汇市场的流动性急剧下降。国际机构投资者赎回资本的能力显著受损，严重程度使尼日利亚股票市场的可投资性备受质疑。基于 MSCI 尼日利亚指数可投资性问题的紧迫性，MSCI 将于 2016 年 9 月底或之前公布是否将 MSCI 尼日利亚指数从 MSCI 前沿市场指数剔除。此建议，如落实，将配合 2016 年 11 月半年度指数评审实施。
以下是英文原文：
RESULTS OF MSCI 2016 MARKET CLASSIFICATION REVIEWMSCI will delay including China A shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
New York – June 14, 2016 – MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI), a leading provider of global equity indexes,announced today that it will delay including China A shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Overrecent months, Chinese authorities have introduced significant improvements in the accessibility of theChina A shares market for global investors. These improvements touch the major categories previouslycited as impediments to inclusion: (1) resolution of the issues regarding beneficial ownership, (2)enhanced regulations on trading suspension, which was flagged as the most critical by investors, and (3)QFII policy changes aimed at addressing quota allocation and capital mobility restrictions.“There have been significant steps toward the eventual inclusion of China A shares in the MSCIEmerging Markets Index,” said Remy Briand, MSCI Managing Director and Global Head of Research.“They demonstrate a clear commitment by the Chinese authorities to bring the accessibility of the ChinaA shares market closer to international standards. We look forward to the continuation of policymomentum in addressing the remaining accessibility issues.”Mr. Briand added, “International institutional investors clearly indicated that they would like to seefurther improvements in the accessibility of the China A shares market before its inclusion in the MSCIEmerging Markets Index. In keeping with its standard practice, MSCI will monitor the implementation ofthe recently announced policy changes and will seek feedback from market participants.”MSCI gathered feedback from market participants on the potential inclusion of China A shares in theMSCI Emerging Market Index during an extensive global consultation. Investors recognized the actionstaken to further open the China A shares market and highlighted that the topic of beneficial ownershiphas been satisfactorily resolved. They generally stressed the need for a period of observation to assessthe effectiveness of the QFII quota allocation and capital mobility policy changes as well as theeffectiveness of the new trading suspension policies. The 20% monthly repatriation limit remains asignificant hurdle for investors that may be faced with redemptions such as mutual funds and must besatisfactorily addressed. Finally, the local exchanges’ pre-approval restrictions on launching financialproducts remain unaddressed. Hence, MSCI will retain the China A shares inclusion proposal as part ofthe 2017 Market Classification Review. MSCI does not rule out a potential off-cycle announcementshould further significant positive developments occur ahead of June 2017.In today’s announcement, MSCI also said that the MSCI Pakistan Index will be reclassified to EmergingMarkets status, coinciding with the May 2017 Semi-Annual Index Review.
The MSCI Peru Index will remain in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. However, MSCI highlighted that itwill proceed with the reclassification of Peru to Frontier Markets status in the event that the MSCI PeruIndex falls short of the minimum requirement for Emerging Markets that the index contains at leastthree constituents. As a reminder, the MSCI Peru Index currently includes the minimum of threeconstituents.MSCI also announced today that it will include the MSCI Argentina Index in its 2017 Annual MarketClassification Review for a potential reclassification to Emerging Markets status.The MSCI Korea Index, however, will not be included on the list for a potential reclassification toDeveloped Markets status as part of the 2017 Review because the recent changes announced by theFinancial Services Commission in South Korea will not take effect until 2017 and the investment frictionsrelated to the lack of convertibility of the Korean Won and restrictions imposed by the local stockexchange on the use of exchange data for the creation of financial products remain unaddressed.MSCI further announced that the MSCI Nigeria Index may be removed from the MSCI Frontier MarketsIndex and reclassified as a stand-alone market due to capital mobility issues. MSCI said it will consultwith international institutional investors over the coming three months on a reclassification proposalthat could be implemented with the November 2016 Semi-Annual Index Review.MSCI said that it welcomes the recent market accessibility enhancements announced by the SaudiArabian Capital Market Authority and the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) and will continue to monitorthe positive evolution in the opening of the Saudi Arabian equity market for international institutionalinvestors. The announced changes, including changes to the settlement cycle of listed securities,elimination of the cash prefunding requirement and the introduction of proper delivery versus payment– as well as changes to the rules for Qualified Foreign Investors – are planned to be implemented bymid-2017. Once in effect, these enhancements will bring the Saudi equity market closer to EmergingMarket accessibility standards.Finally, MSCI released the 2016 Global Market Accessibility Review for the 82 markets under itscoverage.
Each June, MSCI communicates its conclusions, based on discussions with the international investmentcommunity, on a list of markets under review. At that time, it also announces new markets to bereviewed for potential market reclassification in the upcoming cycle.China A sharesMSCI continues to observe positive market-opening developments in the Chinese equity capital market.In particular, it sees the recently-announced enhanced trading suspension regulation, the clarificationregarding beneficial ownership and QFII policy changes addressing restrictions on quota allocations andcapital mobility as significant steps toward the eventual inclusion of China A shares in the MSCI EmergingMarkets Index.MSCI previously highlighted four issues to be resolved before the inclusion of China A shares in the MSCIEmerging Markets Index as part of the MSCI 2016 Annual Market Classification Review:1. Beneficial ownershipMost international institutional investors are satisfied with the clarification released by CSRC in earlyMay 2016 about the beneficial ownership issues. Hence, MSCI considers this question to beresolved.2. Effectiveness of the QFII policy changes affecting accessibility and capital mobilityInternational institutional investors need more time to work with the relevant regulator and gatherexperience regarding the recently implemented QFII policy changes, including policy enhancementsintended to improve capital mobility. For example, a number of international investors said that theywere still awaiting their QFII quota allocation for applications submitted months before. Otherinvestors said that they were not yet able to benefit from daily capital repatriation despite the factthat policy changes went into effect in early February of this year. Positive experiences on quotaapplications, as well as seamless execution of daily capital repatriation under the new rules, arecritical considerations for international investors in supporting inclusion in the MSCI EmergingMarkets Index.Additionally, a large number of market participants highlighted the operational challengessurrounding the monthly repatriation limit that remained unaddressed as part of the recent capitalmobility enhancements. Under current regulation, QFII investors cannot repatriate on a monthlybasis more than 20% of their prior-year net asset value. This limit poses a potential liquidity concernfor investors who need to honor redemption outflows from their clients, and thus must be removedor substantially increased with a shorter repatriation horizon, otherwise the effectiveness of the QFIIchannel would be significantly reduced.
3. Implementation of measures preventing widespread voluntary suspensions of tradingThe suspension of stock trading was a focal point of discussion during the MSCI consultation.International investors were extremely vocal about the liquidity risk that may result from voluntarysuspensions in trading of mainland Chinese companies. In that context, MSCI welcomes the recentlyannounced measures on suspension treatment by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges,while noting that the market practice remains unique not only for Emerging Markets but for allmarkets covered by MSCI. Given that the new regulation has been implemented very recently, aperiod of observation is needed to assess its effectiveness and determine that the number ofsuspended stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges has been significantly reduced.4. Pre-approval requirements imposed by the local Chinese stock exchangesInternational investors expressed concern over potential uncertainties regarding the broad preapprovalrestrictions imposed by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on launching financialproducts by any financial institution on any stock exchange internationally if these products arelinked to indexes that include China A shares. These restrictions apply to any new financial productsas well as to any existing products. The breadth of the restrictions is unique in Emerging Markets, asis the possibility that existing financial products based on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index would bein danger of having their trading disrupted if China A shares were included in Emerging Markets anda Chinese exchange withheld its approval of MSCI’s licensing of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index asthe basis of that product. Consequently, a vast majority of investors said that alignment tointernational norms and satisfactory resolution of this issue is essential if they are to include A sharesin their investment opportunity set.Recognizing the significant progress to date and ongoing reform efforts, MSCI said that China Ashares will remain on the 2017 review list, pending the conclusion based on investor feedback thatthe QFII policy changes and new suspension treatment are effectively implemented, and the issue ofpre-approval requirements is resolved. MSCI does not rule out a potential off-cycle announcementshould significant positive developments occur ahead of June 2017.ArgentinaMSCI is adding the MSCI Argentina Index to the review list for a potential reclassification to EmergingMarkets status as part of the 2017 Annual Market Classification Review.In December 2015, the Argentinian Central Bank abolished foreign exchange restrictions and significantlyrelaxed the capital controls that have been in place for a number of years. These changes have resultedin, among other things: (1) a floating currency, (2) the elimination of cash reserves and monthlyrepatriation limits on the equity market and (3) a significant reduction in the capital lock-up period forinvestments. Consequently, the Argentinian equity market meets most of the accessibility criteria forEmerging Markets.
NigeriaMSCI announced that it is launching a consultation on a potential reclassification of the MSCI NigeriaIndex to stand-alone market status.The Central Bank of Nigeria pegged the local currency to the US dollar in early 2015, resulting in a sharpdecline in liquidity on the foreign exchange market. Hence, the ability of international institutionalinvestors to repatriate capital has been significantly impaired to a point where the investability of theNigerian equity market is being questioned.Due to the urgent nature of this investability issue in the MSCI Nigeria Index, MSCI will announce itsdecision on the proposal to remove the MSCI Nigeria Index from the MSCI Frontier Markets Index by theend of September 2016. The potential implementation of this proposal would coincide with theNovember 2016 Semi-Annual Index Review.
